Over/Under 2.5 Goals — Model Probabilities

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This page selects every modelled fixture, ordered by the derived probability of three or more total goals, with the captured market price beside it where one is held. A fixture without published expected goals cannot be derived and is left out.

24 fixtures of 24 considered

Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time.

How these probabilities are derived. They come from the engine's own bivariate Poisson score matrix with the Dixon-Coles low-score correction — the same matrix the match pages show, computed once by the engine rather than re-derived here. Probabilities, not promises: no outcome is ever certain.

Match	Kickoff (UK)	Expected total goals	Over / Under 2.5 (derived)	Market price O/U
Sevilla v Valencia LAL	Fri 11 Sept, 20:00	members	members	2.30 / 1.61 @ 2.5
Real Racing Club de Santander v Alavés LAL	Sat 12 Sept, 13:00	members	members	1.75 / 2.10 @ 2.5
CA Osasuna v Espanyol LAL	Sat 12 Sept, 15:15	members	members	2.34 / 1.72 @ 2.5
Athletic Bilbao v Elche CF LAL	Sat 12 Sept, 17:30	members	members	1.70 / 2.15 @ 2.5
Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano LAL	Sat 12 Sept, 20:00	members	members	—
Celta Vigo v Málaga LAL	Sun 13 Sept, 13:00	members	members	2.02 / 1.79 @ 2.5
Levante v Barcelona LAL	Sun 13 Sept, 15:15	members	members	—
Getafe v Deportivo La Coruña LAL	Sun 13 Sept, 17:30	members	members	—
CA Osasuna v Espanyol LAL	Sun 13 Sept, 20:00	members	members	—
Real Sociedad v Atlético Madrid LAL	Sun 13 Sept, 20:00	members	members	1.67 / 2.18 @ 2.5
Athletic Bilbao v Elche CF LAL	Sun 13 Sept, 20:00	members	members	—
Sevilla v Valencia LAL	Sun 13 Sept, 20:00	members	members	—
Villarreal v Real Betis LAL	Mon 14 Sept, 20:00	members	members	1.62 / 2.30 @ 2.5
Rayo Vallecano v Espanyol LAL	Tue 15 Sept, 18:00	members	members	2.00 / 1.88 @ 2.5
Alavés v Valencia LAL	Tue 15 Sept, 19:00	members	members	2.34 / 1.65 @ 2.5
Elche CF v Real Madrid LAL	Tue 15 Sept, 20:30	members	members	—
Atlético Madrid v CA Osasuna LAL	Wed 16 Sept, 18:00	members	members	1.76 / 2.20 @ 2.5
Deportivo La Coruña v Sevilla LAL	Wed 16 Sept, 18:00	members	members	2.28 / 1.65 @ 2.5
Barcelona v Real Racing Club de Santander LAL	Wed 16 Sept, 20:30	members	members	—
Levante v Athletic Bilbao LAL	Wed 16 Sept, 20:30	members	members	1.89 / 1.88 @ 2.5
Barcelona v Racing Santander LAL	Wed 16 Sept, 20:30	members	members	—
Real Betis v Getafe LAL	Thu 17 Sept, 18:00	members	members	2.35 / 1.62 @ 2.5
Málaga v Villarreal LAL	Thu 17 Sept, 20:30	members	members	1.67 / 2.18 @ 2.5
Espanyol v Elche CF LAL	Fri 18 Sept, 20:00	members	members	—

Frequently asked questions

What does over/under 2.5 goals mean?

A market on the total goals in the match: over 2.5 wins with three or more goals, under 2.5 with two or fewer. The probabilities here are derived from the model’s total expected goals.

How are the over 2.5 probabilities calculated?

From the engine’s full score matrix: the probabilities of every 0, 1 and 2-goal scoreline are added and over 2.5 is one minus that total. It is the same matrix the match pages show, computed once by the engine, so the two never disagree.

Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 12 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.