Over/Under 2.5 Goals — Model Probabilities

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This page selects every modelled fixture, ordered by the derived probability of three or more total goals, with the captured market price beside it where one is held. A fixture without published expected goals cannot be derived and is left out.

20 fixtures of 20 considered

Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time.

How these probabilities are derived. They come from the engine's own bivariate Poisson score matrix with the Dixon-Coles low-score correction — the same matrix the match pages show, computed once by the engine rather than re-derived here. Probabilities, not promises: no outcome is ever certain.

Match	Kickoff (UK)	Expected total goals	Over / Under 2.5 (derived)	Market price O/U
FC Ararat-Armenia v Sparta Prague UEL	Wed 16 Sept, 17:45	members	members	1.72 / 2.26 @ 2.5
Omonoia FC v Celta Vigo UEL	Wed 16 Sept, 17:45	members	members	2.18 / 1.83 @ 2.5
SK Sturm Graz v Rennes UEL	Wed 16 Sept, 20:00	members	members	1.70 / 2.18 @ 2.5
Sunderland v AZ Alkmaar UEL	Wed 16 Sept, 20:00	members	members	1.69 / 2.23 @ 2.5
Anderlecht v Lyon UEL	Wed 16 Sept, 20:00	members	members	1.65 / 2.30 @ 2.5
AC Milan v Benfica UEL	Wed 16 Sept, 20:00	members	members	1.70 / 2.20 @ 2.5
Hapoel Be'er Sheva v Dinamo Zagreb UEL	Wed 16 Sept, 20:00	members	members	1.69 / 2.25 @ 2.5
Olympiakos Piraeus v Jagiellonia Białystok UEL	Wed 16 Sept, 20:00	members	members	1.62 / 2.33 @ 2.5
Bayer Leverkusen v NK Celje UEL	Wed 16 Sept, 20:00	members	members	—
PFC Levski Sofia v Salzburg UEL	Thu 17 Sept, 17:45	members	members	1.71 / 2.30 @ 2.5
OFI Crete v TSG Hoffenheim UEL	Thu 17 Sept, 17:45	members	members	1.62 / 2.33 @ 2.5
Levski Sofia v Red Bull Salzburg UEL	Thu 17 Sept, 17:45	members	members	—
Lillestrom v Torreense UEL	Thu 17 Sept, 20:00	members	members	1.62 / 2.30 @ 2.5
Besiktas JK v Marseille UEL	Thu 17 Sept, 20:00	members	members	1.65 / 2.25 @ 2.5
Real Sociedad v Bournemouth UEL	Thu 17 Sept, 20:00	members	members	1.78 / 2.18 @ 2.5
Juventus v NEC Nijmegen UEL	Thu 17 Sept, 20:00	members	members	—
Viktoria Plzeň v Union Saint-Gilloise UEL	Thu 17 Sept, 20:00	members	members	1.83 / 2.00 @ 2.5
Crystal Palace v Lech Poznań UEL	Thu 17 Sept, 20:00	members	members	1.66 / 2.20 @ 2.5
Celtic v Ferencváros TC UEL	Thu 17 Sept, 20:00	members	members	—
Plzen v Union St. Gilloise UEL	Thu 17 Sept, 20:00	members	members	—

Frequently asked questions

What does over/under 2.5 goals mean?

A market on the total goals in the match: over 2.5 wins with three or more goals, under 2.5 with two or fewer. The probabilities here are derived from the model’s total expected goals.

How are the over 2.5 probabilities calculated?

From the engine’s full score matrix: the probabilities of every 0, 1 and 2-goal scoreline are added and over 2.5 is one minus that total. It is the same matrix the match pages show, computed once by the engine, so the two never disagree.

Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 12 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.