Over/Under 2.5 Goals — Model Probabilities
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This page selects every modelled fixture, ordered by the derived probability of three or more total goals, with the captured market price beside it where one is held. A fixture without published expected goals cannot be derived and is left out.
9 fixtures of 9 considered
All leagues
3. Liga - GermanyAllsvenskan - SwedenAustrian Football BundesligaBelgium First DivBrazil Série ABrazil Série BBundesliga - GermanyBundesliga 2 - GermanyChampionshipCopa LibertadoresCopa SudamericanaCoppa ItaliaDenmark SuperligaDutch EredivisieEFL CupEkstraklasa - PolandEliteserien - NorwayEPLFA CupFrauen-BundesligaJ LeagueK League 1La Liga - SpainLa Liga 2 - SpainLeague 1League of IrelandLeague TwoLiga MXLigue 1 - FranceLigue 2 - FranceMLSPremiership - ScotlandPrimeira Liga - PortugalPrimera División - ArgentinaPrimera División - ChileSaudi Pro LeagueSerie A - ItalySerie B - ItalySuper League - GreeceSuperettan - SwedenSwiss SuperleagueTurkey Super LeagueUEFA Europa LeagueVeikkausliiga - Finland
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 12 September at 08:04 UK time.
How these probabilities are derived. They come from the engine's
own bivariate Poisson score matrix with the Dixon-Coles low-score correction — the same matrix the match
pages show, computed once by the engine rather than re-derived here. Probabilities, not promises: no outcome
is ever certain.
| Match | Kickoff (UK) | Expected total goals | Over / Under 2.5 (derived) | Market price O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Westerlo v Standard Liege
|
Sat 12 Sept, 17:15 | members | members | 1.65 / 2.46 @ 2.5 |
 Leuven v Cercle Brugge KSV
|
Sat 12 Sept, 19:45 | members | members | 1.66 / 2.42 @ 2.5 |
 Union Saint-Gilloise v Lommel SK
|
Sat 12 Sept, 19:45 | members | members | — |
 Club Brugge v Royal Antwerp
|
Sun 13 Sept, 12:30 | members | members | — |
 Genk v Gent
|
Sun 13 Sept, 15:00 | members | members | 1.75 / 2.08 @ 2.5 |
 SV Zulte-Waregem v Charleroi
|
Sun 13 Sept, 17:30 | members | members | 1.70 / 2.16 @ 2.5 |
 RAAL La Louvière v KV Kortrijk
|
Sun 13 Sept, 18:15 | members | members | 2.02 / 1.84 @ 2.5 |
| Gent v Standard Liege
|
Fri 18 Sept, 19:45 | members | members | — |
| OH Leuven v RAAL La Louvière
|
Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 | members | members | — |
JPLFrequently asked questions
What does over/under 2.5 goals mean?
A market on the total goals in the match: over 2.5 wins with three or more goals, under 2.5 with two or fewer. The probabilities here are derived from the model’s total expected goals.
How are the over 2.5 probabilities calculated?
From the engine’s full score matrix: the probabilities of every 0, 1 and 2-goal scoreline are added and over 2.5 is one minus that total. It is the same matrix the match pages show, computed once by the engine, so the two never disagree.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 12 September at 08:04 UK time. · engine slate assembled 7 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.