Bodø/Glimt v Fredrikstad FK
Eliteserien - Norway · Fri 17 Jul, 18:15 UK
Model probabilities
48% / 26% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.793 — 1.267
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Bodø/Glimt 35% · Fredrikstad FK 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bodø/Glimt | 48.3% | 1.22 | 1.18 | -3.6% |
| Draw | 26.0% | 9.17 | 8.50 | -7.4% |
| Fredrikstad FK | 25.7% | 13.51 | 16.00 | +18.4% |
Sharp reference (raw): 1.16 / 8.69 / 12.84 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Bodø/Glimt — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Bodø/GlimtFair line (devig) — Bodø/Glimt
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Bodø/Glimt
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Fredrikstad FK
LWDWLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.83
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Lillestrom | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-29 | H v Start | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-25 | A v Sandefjord | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-16 | H v HamKam | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-09 | A v Sarpsborg 08 | 1-2 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.