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Today's intelligence — model vs market on every fixture in the snapshot. Research, not instructions.
📅 Tuesday 14 July
Filtered: showing only MLS (21 fixtures)
· clear filter
MLSSat 18 Jul, 01:10
NS Nashville SC v Atlanta United FC AUF
+16.6%
edge vs fair
24%
model probability
1X2 — Atlanta United FC · best 8.00
strong value
MLSFri 17 Jul, 01:30
SLC St. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas City SKC
+3.6%
edge vs fair
28%
model probability
1X2 — Sporting Kansas City · best 6.75
value
MLSFri 17 Jul, 03:30
SSF Seattle Sounders FC v Portland Timbers PT
+1.7%
edge vs fair
19%
model probability
1X2 — Portland Timbers · best 6.00
value
Match intelligence
Nashville SC v Atlanta United FC
MLS · Sat 18 Jul, 01:10 UK
Model lean — 1X2
Nashville SC
50%
model probability — uncertainty included by design
1.53
fair odds
1.44
best price
-6%
edge vs fair
Model probabilities
Market (fair, devigged · sharp)
Engine score — process gate
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
λ (exp. goals): 1.78 — 1.196
Most likely score: 1-1
Model–market gap: 16 pts
Most likely score: 1-1
Model–market gap: 16 pts
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 49.6% | 1.53 | 1.44 | -6% |
| Draw | 26.2% | 4.98 | 4.90 | -1.5% |
| Atlanta United FC | 24.3% | 6.85 | 8.00 | +16.8% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.67 · Under: 2.33 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.45 / 4.72 / 6.50 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Nashville SC
WWWDDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 2.25 / 0.83
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v New York City | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-18 | H v Los Angeles FC | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | A v New England Revolution | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | H v DC United | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Philadelphia Union | 0-0 | D |
Atlanta United FC
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Engine score is a 0–100 process gate, not a certainty claim —
it ranks independent agreement (market shape, expected value, model, form). Channel selections appear as
FLAGGED; everything else is shown so you can judge what we didn't flag too.
Next up (12 of 21 — all matches →)
| Match | Kickoff (UK) | Model lean | Fair odds (1X2) | Best price (1X2) | Best edge | Engine score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal v Toronto FC
MLS |
Fri 17 Jul, 00:30 | CF Montreal 50% | 2.08 / 4.07 / 3.66
sharp, devigged |
2.02 / 3.90 / 3.65 | -0.2% Toronto FC |
— | |
| Chicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps FC
MLS |
Fri 17 Jul, 01:30 | Chicago Fire 45% | 3.05 / 3.91 / 2.40
sharp, devigged |
3.05 / 3.90 / 2.26 | +0.1% Chicago Fire |
— | |
| St. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas City
MLS |
Fri 17 Jul, 01:30 | St. Louis City SC 46% | 1.52 / 5.35 / 6.54
sharp, devigged |
1.44 / 5.30 / 6.75 | +3.6% Sporting Kansas City |
— | |
| Seattle Sounders FC v Portland Timbers
MLS |
Fri 17 Jul, 03:30 | Seattle Sounders FC 56% | 1.56 / 5.24 / 5.92
sharp, devigged |
1.51 / 5.00 / 6.00 | +1.7% Portland Timbers |
— | |
| Nashville SC v Atlanta United FC
MLS |
Sat 18 Jul, 01:10 | Nashville SC 50% | 1.53 / 4.98 / 6.85
sharp, devigged |
1.44 / 4.90 / 8.00 | +16.6% Atlanta United FC |
— | |
| LA Galaxy v Los Angeles FC
MLS |
Sat 18 Jul, 03:25 | LA Galaxy 50% | 2.91 / 3.86 / 2.52
sharp, devigged |
2.72 / 3.90 / 2.42 | +1.2% Draw |
— | |
| Inter Miami CF v Chicago Fire
MLS |
Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 | Inter Miami CF 59% | 1.62 / 5.24 / 5.24
consensus, devigged |
1.55 / 5.00 / 5.00 | -4.3% Inter Miami CF |
— | |
| Columbus Crew SC v New York City FC
MLS |
Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 | Columbus Crew SC 47% | 2.07 / 4.03 / 3.72
consensus, devigged |
1.95 / 3.80 / 3.50 | -5.8% Columbus Crew SC |
— | |
| FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps FC
MLS |
Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 | FC Cincinnati 45% | 3.62 / 4.61 / 1.97
consensus, devigged |
3.40 / 4.33 / 1.85 | -6.2% FC Cincinnati |
— | |
| New England Revolution v Toronto FC
MLS |
Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 | New England Revolution 53% | 1.85 / 4.02 / 4.76
consensus, devigged |
1.75 / 3.80 / 4.50 | -5.4% New England Revolution |
— | |
| Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls
MLS |
Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 | Philadelphia Union 48% | 1.78 / 4.48 / 4.63
consensus, devigged |
1.67 / 4.20 / 4.33 | -6.4% Philadelphia Union |
— | |
| Charlotte FC v Atlanta United FC
MLS |
Thu 23 Jul, 01:15 | Charlotte FC 50% | 1.77 / 4.24 / 5.03
consensus, devigged |
1.67 / 4.00 / 4.75 | -5.6% Charlotte FC |
— |
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Market analysis
best price vs devigged fair line
| Market | Best | Fair | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 · Atlanta United FC Nashville SC v Atlanta United FC |
8.00 | 6.85 | +16.6% | strong |
| 1X2 · Sporting Kansas City St. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas City |
6.75 | 6.54 | +3.6% | value |
| 1X2 · Portland Timbers Seattle Sounders FC v Portland Timbers |
6.00 | 5.92 | +1.7% | value |
| 1X2 · Draw LA Galaxy v Los Angeles FC |
3.90 | 3.86 | +1.2% | value |
| 1X2 · Chicago Fire Chicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps FC |
3.05 | 3.05 | +0.1% | value |
| 1X2 · Toronto FC CF Montreal v Toronto FC |
3.65 | 3.66 | -0.2% | — |
| 1X2 · Inter Miami CF Inter Miami CF v Chicago Fire |
1.55 | 1.62 | -4.3% | — |
| Over 2.5 Nashville SC v Atlanta United FC · consensus devig |
1.67 | 1.72 | -2.7% | totals |
| Under 2.5 Nashville SC v Atlanta United FC · consensus devig |
2.33 | 2.40 | -2.7% | totals |
Odds movement
1X2 · Nashville SC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Nashville SCFair line (devig) — Nashville SC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Closing-line value
the number we judge ourselves on
-0.25%
avg CLV · 53 flags
8/20
last 20 beat the close
Alerts
flags posted & closings captured — sign in for alerts
Closing captured — América Mineiro to Win 2.02 → 2.18 (-7.3% CLV)
07-13 08:00
Closing captured — Both Teams to Score 1.70 → 1.65 (+3% CLV)
07-12 10:00
Closing captured — Bodø/Glimt to Win 1.57 → 1.53 (+2.6% CLV)
07-12 09:00
Closing captured — Rosenborg to Win 1.66 → 1.62 (+2.5% CLV)
07-12 08:00
Our intelligence, your context — the process behind every number
Data-driven
A Dixon-Coles + ELO model rebuilt continuously from a growing archive of real results, blended with the market it is priced against.
AI-assisted, bounded
Grounded AI briefs explain the numbers and flag risks. Models never invent a price or a probability — the statistical engine and the market own the numbers.
Market-focused
Every idea is compared against the sharp line and devigged fair odds — value is measured, not asserted.
Logged & graded
Every prediction is timestamped and graded against the closing line. Wins and losses stay on the page.
Built for analysts
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Always improving
The model retrains on every finished match, and weak signals get demoted by evidence — not by opinion.