FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps FC
MLS · Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 UK
Model probabilities
45% / 27% / 29%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.692 — 1.328
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): FC Cincinnati 32% · Vancouver Whitecaps FC 20% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati | 44.5% | 3.62 | 3.40 | -6.2% |
| Draw | 26.7% | 4.61 | 4.33 | -6% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 28.8% | 1.97 | 1.85 | -6.2% |
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · FC Cincinnati — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — FC CincinnatiFair line (devig) — FC Cincinnati
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
FC Cincinnati
WDLDWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 2.83 / 2.92
Over 2.5 goals: 83% · Both teams scored: 92% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 83% · Both teams scored: 92% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v Orlando City | 6-2 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v San Diego FC | 3-3 | D |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Inter Miami | 3-5 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Charlotte | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Chicago Fire | 3-2 | W |
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
WLWDDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 2.5 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | A v San Diego FC | 4-2 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Houston Dynamo | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | A v FC Dallas | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | A v San Jose Earthquakes | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Los Angeles Galaxy | 1-1 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-11 | Vancouver Whitecaps v FC Cincinnati | 1-1 | USA MLS |
| 2022-07-14 | FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps | 2-2 | USA MLS |
| 2019-08-04 | FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps | 1-2 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.