St. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas City
MLS · Fri 17 Jul, 01:30 UK
Model probabilities
46% / 27% / 28%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.717 — 1.298
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): St. Louis City SC 32% · Sporting Kansas City 19% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City SC | 45.8% | 1.52 | 1.44 | -5% |
| Draw | 26.6% | 5.35 | 5.30 | -0.9% |
| Sporting Kansas City | 27.6% | 6.54 | 6.75 | +3.3% |
Sharp reference (raw): 1.43 / 5.06 / 6.15 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · St. Louis City SC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — St. Louis City SCFair line (devig) — St. Louis City SC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
St. Louis City SC
WDWWLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.42
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | H v Austin FC | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v DC United | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Los Angeles FC | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Colorado Rapids | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Austin FC | 0-2 | L |
Sporting Kansas City
LWWLDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 2.58
Over 2.5 goals: 83% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 83% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v New York Red Bulls | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Austin FC | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Los Angeles Galaxy | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Portland Timbers | 0-6 | L |
| 2026-05-02 | H v Seattle Sounders | 1-1 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-15 | St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City | 2-2 | USA MLS |
| 2025-04-06 | Sporting Kansas City v St. Louis City | 2-0 | USA MLS |
| 2024-09-29 | St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City | 3-1 | USA MLS |
| 2024-07-21 | Sporting Kansas City v St. Louis City | 1-1 | USA MLS |
| 2024-04-21 | Sporting Kansas City v St. Louis City | 3-3 | USA MLS |
| 2023-11-05 | Sporting Kansas City v St. Louis City | 2-1 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.