Chicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps FC
MLS · Fri 17 Jul, 01:30 UK
Model probabilities
45% / 27% / 28%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.659 — 1.257
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Chicago Fire 32% · Vancouver Whitecaps FC 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | 45.3% | 3.05 | 3.05 | 0% |
| Draw | 27.1% | 3.91 | 3.90 | -0.2% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 27.6% | 2.40 | 2.26 | -6% |
Sharp reference (raw): 2.90 / 3.72 / 2.29 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Chicago Fire — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Chicago FireFair line (devig) — Chicago Fire
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Chicago Fire
WWWLLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.92 / 1.17
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v Toronto FC | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-16 | A v CF Montreal | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | A v DC United | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-09 | H v New York Red Bulls | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | H v FC Cincinnati | 2-3 | L |
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
WLWDDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 2.5 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | A v San Diego FC | 4-2 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Houston Dynamo | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | A v FC Dallas | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | A v San Jose Earthquakes | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Los Angeles Galaxy | 1-1 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-23 | Vancouver Whitecaps v Chicago Fire | 1-3 | USA MLS |
| 2023-08-31 | Chicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps | 0-1 | USA MLS |
| 2022-07-24 | Vancouver Whitecaps v Chicago Fire | 1-3 | USA MLS |
| 2020-07-23 | Chicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps | 0-2 | USA MLS |
| 2019-04-13 | Chicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps | 1-1 | USA MLS |
| 2018-07-08 | Vancouver Whitecaps v Chicago Fire | 3-2 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.