Seattle Sounders FC v Portland Timbers
MLS · Fri 17 Jul, 03:30 UK
Model probabilities
56% / 26% / 19%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.849 — 1.003
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Seattle Sounders FC 40% · Portland Timbers 12% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders FC | 55.7% | 1.56 | 1.51 | -3.5% |
| Draw | 25.5% | 5.24 | 5.00 | -4.5% |
| Portland Timbers | 18.9% | 5.92 | 6.00 | +1.4% |
Sharp reference (raw): 1.48 / 4.94 / 5.58 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Seattle Sounders FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Seattle Sounders FCFair line (devig) — Seattle Sounders FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Seattle Sounders FC
LLWDDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 0.92
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | A v Los Angeles FC | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Los Angeles Galaxy | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | H v San Jose Earthquakes | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | H v San Diego FC | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-02 | A v Sporting Kansas City | 1-1 | D |
Portland Timbers
LLDWLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.58 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v San Jose Earthquakes | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Inter Miami | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | A v CF Montreal | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Sporting Kansas City | 6-0 | W |
| 2026-05-02 | A v Real Salt Lake | 0-2 | L |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers | 1-0 | USA MLS |
| 2025-05-18 | Portland Timbers v Seattle Sounders | 1-1 | USA MLS |
| 2024-10-20 | Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers | 1-1 | USA MLS |
| 2024-09-01 | Portland Timbers v Seattle Sounders | 1-0 | USA MLS |
| 2024-05-12 | Portland Timbers v Seattle Sounders | 1-2 | USA MLS |
| 2023-09-03 | Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers | 2-2 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.