New England Revolution v Toronto FC
MLS · Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 UK
Model probabilities
53% / 25% / 21%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.893 — 1.141
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): New England Revolution 39% · Toronto FC 14% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution | 53.4% | 1.85 | 1.75 | -5.3% |
| Draw | 25.2% | 4.02 | 3.80 | -5.4% |
| Toronto FC | 21.4% | 4.76 | 4.50 | -5.5% |
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · New England Revolution — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — New England RevolutionFair line (devig) — New England Revolution
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
New England Revolution
LWLWWD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.75 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | A v Charlotte | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Minnesota United | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Nashville SC | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Philadelphia Union | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-03 | H v Charlotte | 1-0 | W |
Toronto FC
LLLDLD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.67 / 1.92
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 92% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 92% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | A v Chicago Fire | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Charlotte | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-09 | H v Inter Miami | 2-4 | L |
| 2026-05-02 | H v San Jose Earthquakes | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-25 | H v Atlanta Utd | 1-2 | L |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-14 | New England Revolution v Toronto FC | 1-1 | USA MLS |
| 2025-05-03 | Toronto FC v New England Revolution | 0-2 | USA MLS |
| 2024-04-21 | Toronto FC v New England Revolution | 1-0 | USA MLS |
| 2024-03-03 | New England Revolution v Toronto FC | 0-1 | USA MLS |
| 2023-06-25 | New England Revolution v Toronto FC | 2-1 | USA MLS |
| 2023-05-07 | Toronto FC v New England Revolution | 0-2 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.