Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls
MLS · Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 UK
Model probabilities
48% / 27% / 25%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.681 — 1.158
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Philadelphia Union 33% · New York Red Bulls 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union | 48.0% | 1.78 | 1.67 | -6.3% |
| Draw | 27.1% | 4.48 | 4.20 | -6.3% |
| New York Red Bulls | 24.8% | 4.63 | 4.33 | -6.5% |
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Philadelphia Union — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Philadelphia UnionFair line (devig) — Philadelphia Union
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Philadelphia Union
LDLLDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.42 / 2.17
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | A v Inter Miami | 4-6 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Columbus Crew | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-14 | A v Orlando City | 3-4 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | A v New England Revolution | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | H v Nashville SC | 0-0 | D |
New York Red Bulls
WDWWLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.83 / 2.33
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | A v Sporting Kansas City | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | H v New York City | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Columbus Crew | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-09 | A v Chicago Fire | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-03 | H v FC Dallas | 0-2 | L |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-17 | New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union | 1-0 | USA MLS |
| 2025-07-13 | Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls | 2-0 | USA MLS |
| 2024-09-01 | New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union | 0-2 | USA MLS |
| 2024-07-07 | Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls | 0-0 | USA MLS |
| 2023-09-04 | Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls | 4-1 | USA MLS |
| 2023-05-07 | New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union | 0-1 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.