LA Galaxy v Los Angeles FC
MLS · Sat 18 Jul, 03:25 UK
Model probabilities
50% / 26% / 24%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.78 — 1.196
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): LA Galaxy 36% · Los Angeles FC 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA Galaxy | 49.6% | 2.91 | 2.72 | -6.4% |
| Draw | 26.2% | 3.86 | 3.90 | +1% |
| Los Angeles FC | 24.3% | 2.52 | 2.42 | -3.9% |
Sharp reference (raw): 2.77 / 3.67 / 2.40 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · LA Galaxy — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — LA GalaxyFair line (devig) — LA Galaxy
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
LA Galaxy
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Los Angeles FC
WLLLDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.5 / 1.42
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | H v Seattle Sounders | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-18 | A v Nashville SC | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | A v St. Louis City | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-11 | H v Houston Dynamo | 1-4 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | A v San Diego FC | 2-2 | D |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.