Nashville SC v Atlanta United FC
MLS · Sat 18 Jul, 01:10 UK
Model probabilities
50% / 26% / 24%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.78 — 1.196
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Nashville SC 35% · Atlanta United FC 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 49.6% | 1.53 | 1.44 | -6% |
| Draw | 26.2% | 4.98 | 4.90 | -1.5% |
| Atlanta United FC | 24.3% | 6.85 | 8.00 | +16.8% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.67 · Under: 2.33 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.45 / 4.72 / 6.50 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Nashville SC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Nashville SCFair line (devig) — Nashville SC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Nashville SC
WWWDDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 2.25 / 0.83
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v New York City | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-18 | H v Los Angeles FC | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | A v New England Revolution | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | H v DC United | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Philadelphia Union | 0-0 | D |
Atlanta United FC
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.