Charlotte FC v Atlanta United FC
MLS · Thu 23 Jul, 01:15 UK
Model probabilities
50% / 26% / 24%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.78 — 1.196
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Charlotte FC 36% · Atlanta United FC 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte FC | 49.6% | 1.77 | 1.67 | -5.6% |
| Draw | 26.2% | 4.24 | 4.00 | -5.6% |
| Atlanta United FC | 24.3% | 5.03 | 4.75 | -5.5% |
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Charlotte FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Charlotte FCFair line (devig) — Charlotte FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Charlotte FC
WWLDLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.67 / 1.5
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v New England Revolution | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Toronto FC | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | H v New York City | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | H v FC Cincinnati | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-03 | A v New England Revolution | 0-1 | L |
Atlanta United FC
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.