Inter Miami CF v Chicago Fire
MLS · Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 UK
Model probabilities
59% / 22% / 19%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
2.245 — 1.243
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Inter Miami CF 46% · Chicago Fire 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami CF | 58.6% | 1.62 | 1.55 | -4.4% |
| Draw | 22.1% | 5.24 | 5.00 | -4.5% |
| Chicago Fire | 19.3% | 5.24 | 5.00 | -4.5% |
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Inter Miami CF — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Inter Miami CFFair line (devig) — Inter Miami CF
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Inter Miami CF
WWWWLD
Goals for/against (last 12): 2.75 / 1.83
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | H v Philadelphia Union | 6-4 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Portland Timbers | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | A v FC Cincinnati | 5-3 | W |
| 2026-05-09 | A v Toronto FC | 4-2 | W |
| 2026-05-03 | H v Orlando City | 3-4 | L |
Chicago Fire
WWWLLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.92 / 1.17
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v Toronto FC | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-16 | A v CF Montreal | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | A v DC United | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-09 | H v New York Red Bulls | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | H v FC Cincinnati | 2-3 | L |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | Inter Miami v Chicago Fire | 3-5 | USA MLS |
| 2025-04-13 | Chicago Fire v Inter Miami | 0-0 | USA MLS |
| 2024-09-01 | Chicago Fire v Inter Miami | 1-4 | USA MLS |
| 2024-07-21 | Inter Miami v Chicago Fire | 2-1 | USA MLS |
| 2023-10-05 | Chicago Fire v Inter Miami | 4-1 | USA MLS |
| 2023-03-25 | Inter Miami v Chicago Fire | 2-3 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.