Columbus Crew SC v New York City FC
MLS · Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 UK
Model probabilities
47% / 27% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.683 — 1.204
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Columbus Crew SC 33% · New York City FC 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus Crew SC | 47.0% | 2.07 | 1.95 | -5.8% |
| Draw | 27.0% | 4.03 | 3.80 | -5.8% |
| New York City FC | 25.9% | 3.72 | 3.50 | -5.8% |
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Columbus Crew SC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Columbus Crew SCFair line (devig) — Columbus Crew SC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Columbus Crew SC
WDLLLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.42 / 1.5
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v Atlanta Utd | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Philadelphia Union | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-14 | A v New York Red Bulls | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | A v New York City | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | H v Minnesota United | 2-3 | L |
New York City FC
LDWWLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.42 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | A v Nashville SC | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | A v New York Red Bulls | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-14 | A v Charlotte | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Columbus Crew | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-05-03 | H v DC United | 0-2 | L |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | New York City v Columbus Crew | 3-0 | USA MLS |
| 2025-09-18 | New York City v Columbus Crew | 3-2 | USA MLS |
| 2025-03-22 | Columbus Crew v New York City | 0-0 | USA MLS |
| 2024-09-01 | Columbus Crew v New York City | 4-2 | USA MLS |
| 2024-06-15 | New York City v Columbus Crew | 2-3 | USA MLS |
| 2023-07-09 | Columbus Crew v New York City | 1-1 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.