CF Montreal v Toronto FC
MLS · Fri 17 Jul, 00:30 UK
Model probabilities
50% / 26% / 25%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.839 — 1.247
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): CF Montreal 36% · Toronto FC 17% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal | 49.8% | 2.08 | 2.02 | -2.8% |
| Draw | 25.6% | 4.07 | 3.90 | -4.1% |
| Toronto FC | 24.6% | 3.66 | 3.65 | -0.4% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.66 · Under: 2.20 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.98 / 3.87 / 3.48 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · CF Montreal — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — CF MontrealFair line (devig) — CF Montreal
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
CF Montreal
WDLDWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.75 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v Vancouver FC | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-24 | A v DC United | 4-4 | D |
| 2026-05-16 | H v Chicago Fire | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Portland Timbers | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-09 | H v Orlando City | 2-0 | W |
Toronto FC
LLLDLD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.67 / 1.92
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 92% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 92% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | A v Chicago Fire | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Charlotte | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-09 | H v Inter Miami | 2-4 | L |
| 2026-05-02 | H v San Jose Earthquakes | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-25 | H v Atlanta Utd | 1-2 | L |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | Toronto FC v CF Montreal | 1-1 | USA MLS |
| 2025-05-17 | CF Montreal v Toronto FC | 1-6 | USA MLS |
| 2024-07-21 | CF Montreal v Toronto FC | 0-1 | USA MLS |
| 2024-05-19 | Toronto FC v CF Montreal | 5-1 | USA MLS |
| 2023-08-21 | Toronto FC v CF Montreal | 2-3 | USA MLS |
| 2023-05-14 | CF Montreal v Toronto FC | 2-0 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.