Shamrock Rovers v Floriana F.C.
UEFA Champions League Qualification · Tue 14 Jul, 20:00 UK
Model probabilities
45% / 29% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Shamrock Rovers 30% · Floriana F.C. 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamrock Rovers | 45.0% | 1.34 | 1.31 | -2.5% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 5.85 | 5.70 | -2.5% |
| Floriana F.C. | 26.1% | 11.76 | 11.50 | -2.2% |
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Shamrock Rovers — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Shamrock RoversFair line (devig) — Shamrock Rovers
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Shamrock Rovers
LWWLLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.58 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | A v Shelbourne | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-29 | H v St. Patricks | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-25 | A v Bohemians | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-22 | H v Sligo Rovers | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-15 | A v Dundalk | 0-1 | L |
Floriana F.C.
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.