Zhejiang v Qingdao Hainiu FC
Super League - China · Tue 14 Jul, 12:35 UK
Model probabilities
46% / 27% / 27%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.7 — 1.278
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Zhejiang 33% · Qingdao Hainiu FC 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhejiang | 45.8% | 1.53 | 1.51 | -1.1% |
| Draw | 26.8% | 5.35 | 5.00 | -6.5% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC | 27.4% | 6.33 | 6.40 | +1.1% |
Sharp reference (raw): 1.46 / 5.10 / 6.06 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Zhejiang — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — ZhejiangFair line (devig) — Zhejiang
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Zhejiang
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Qingdao Hainiu FC
LLLLWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.67 / 1.42
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | A v Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-24 | H v Chongqing Tonglianglong | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-20 | A v Liaoning Tieren | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-15 | A v Beijing Guoan | 2-4 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Dalian Yingbo | 3-1 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
| Signal | Source | Stance | Confidence | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| groq_devils_advocate | groq | warn | 70% | ungraded |
| groq_contradiction | groq | neutral | 0% | ungraded |
| groq_info_quality | groq | neutral | 60% | ungraded |
| gemini_news | gemini | neutral | 10% | ungraded |
| market_sharp_vs_soft | market | support | 65% | ungraded |
Signals are measured shadow inputs — each must beat the baseline over a real sample before it can influence anything. See the attribution table →
Grounded AI brief
No significant team news or tactical insights found for Zhejiang vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC.
verdict: neutral · model-stated confidence 10% (treat as an input, not a promise)
Goals lean: none
Rotation risk: low
Rotation risk: low
AI explains the numbers — it never sets them. Bounded adjustments only.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.