Ceará v Athletic Club (MG)
Brazil Série B · Tue 14 Jul, 00:30 UK
Model probabilities
79% / 19% / 2%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.82 — 0.15
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-0
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Ceará 51% · Athletic Club (MG) 0% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceará | 78.9% | 2.00 | 1.94 | -3% |
| Draw | 19.1% | 3.37 | 3.35 | -0.5% |
| Athletic Club (MG) | 2.1% | 4.93 | 5.20 | +5.6% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.50 · Under: 1.65 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.91 / 3.21 / 4.71 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Ceará — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — CearáFair line (devig) — Ceará
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Ceará
LLLLDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.83 / 1.42
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | H v SE Palmeiras | 1-3 | L |
| 2025-12-07 | H v Palmeiras | 1-3 | L |
| 2025-12-04 | A v CR Flamengo | 0-1 | L |
| 2025-12-04 | A v Flamengo RJ | 0-1 | L |
| 2025-11-30 | H v Cruzeiro EC | 1-1 | D |
Athletic Club (MG)
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.