Celtic v Dundee FC
Premiership - Scotland · Mon 3 Aug, 19:30 UK
Model probabilities
45% / 29% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Celtic 29% · Dundee FC 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic | 45.0% | 1.29 | 1.25 | -2.7% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 7.35 | 7.50 | +2% |
| Dundee FC | 26.1% | 11.63 | 13.00 | +11.8% |
Sharp reference (raw): 1.21 / 6.91 / 10.91 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Celtic — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — CelticFair line (devig) — Celtic
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Celtic
DLLWDD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.42 / 1.67
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-18 | A v FC Bayern München | 1-1 | D |
| 2025-02-12 | H v FC Bayern München | 1-2 | L |
| 2025-01-29 | A v Aston Villa FC | 2-4 | L |
| 2025-01-22 | H v BSC Young Boys | 1-0 | W |
| 2024-12-10 | A v GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 0-0 | D |
Dundee FC
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 4 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Airdrie United | 4-2 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.