Hammarby IF v Degerfors IF
Allsvenskan - Sweden · Sun 19 Jul, 15:30 UK
Model probabilities
72% / 18% / 10%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
2.516 — 0.847
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
2-0
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Hammarby IF 58% · Degerfors IF 7% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hammarby IF | 72.3% | 1.35 | 1.29 | -4.5% |
| Draw | 18.0% | 6.17 | 6.00 | -2.8% |
| Degerfors IF | 9.7% | 10.20 | 11.50 | +12.7% |
Sharp reference (raw): 1.26 / 5.75 / 9.54 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Hammarby IF — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Hammarby IFFair line (devig) — Hammarby IF
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Hammarby IF
LLLWWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 2.25 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | A v Hacken | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-24 | H v AIK | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-20 | A v GAIS | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Malmo FF | 4-1 | W |
| 2026-05-09 | A v Goteborg | 1-0 | W |
Degerfors IF
LDLDLD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Vasteras SK FK | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-31 | H v Brommapojkarna | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-23 | A v Kalmar | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-16 | A v GAIS | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-09 | H v Mjallby | 1-4 | L |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | Degerfors v Hammarby | 1-1 | Sweden Allsvenskan |
| 2025-05-26 | Hammarby v Degerfors | 1-0 | Sweden Allsvenskan |
| 2023-05-25 | Degerfors v Hammarby | 2-2 | Sweden Allsvenskan |
| 2023-04-02 | Hammarby v Degerfors | 3-1 | Sweden Allsvenskan |
| 2022-08-22 | Hammarby v Degerfors | 5-1 | Sweden Allsvenskan |
| 2022-04-21 | Degerfors v Hammarby | 0-1 | Sweden Allsvenskan |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.