France v Spain
FIFA World Cup · Tue 14 Jul, 20:00 UK
Model probabilities
38% / 33% / 30%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.16 — 1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): France 22% · Spain 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 37.6% | 2.53 | 2.52 | -0.5% |
| Draw | 32.8% | 3.29 | 3.30 | +0.3% |
| Spain | 29.6% | 3.32 | 3.30 | -0.7% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.98 · Under: 2.00 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.45 / 3.18 / 3.22 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · France — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — FranceFair line (devig) — France
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
France
WWWWWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 2.58 / 0.75
Over 2.5 goals: 83% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 83% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | H v Morocco | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-07-04 | A v Paraguay | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-06-30 | H v Sweden | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-06-26 | A v Norway | 4-1 | W |
| 2026-06-22 | H v Iraq | 3-0 | W |
Spain
WWWWWD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.67 / 0.42
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 67%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 67%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | H v Belgium | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-07-06 | A v Portugal | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-07-02 | H v Austria | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-06-27 | A v Uruguay | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-06-21 | H v Saudi Arabia | 4-0 | W |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-05 | Spain v France | 5-4 | International |
| 2024-07-09 | Spain v France | 2-1 | International |
| 2021-10-10 | Spain v France | 1-2 | International |
| 2017-03-28 | France v Spain | 0-2 | International |
| 2014-09-04 | France v Spain | 1-0 | International |
| 2013-03-26 | France v Spain | 0-1 | International |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.