Beijing FC v Liaoning Tieren FC
SLC Fri 17 Jul, 12:35 UK · in 3d
Model probabilities
46% / 27% / 27%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.7 — 1.278
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Beijing FC 33% · Liaoning Tieren FC 19% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing FC | 45.8% | 1.46 | 1.40 | -4.4% |
| Draw | 26.8% | 5.43 | 5.40 | -0.6% |
| Liaoning Tieren FC | 27.4% | 7.52 | 7.20 | -4.2% |
Sharp reference (raw): 1.38 / 5.11 / 7.09 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Beijing FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Beijing FCFair line (devig) — Beijing FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Beijing FC
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Liaoning Tieren FC
WWWDLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.42 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | H v Shanghai Port | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-24 | A v Zhejiang Professional | 5-0 | W |
| 2026-05-20 | H v Qingdao Hainiu | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-16 | A v Wuhan Three Towns | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Yunnan Yukun | 1-2 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.