Independiente Medellín v Vasco da Gama
CS Wed 22 Jul, 23:00 UK · in 9d
Model probabilities
47% / 28% / 25%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Independiente Medellín 31% · Vasco da Gama 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Medellín | 46.5% | 2.58 | 2.45 | -5.2% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 3.30 | 3.25 | -1.5% |
| Vasco da Gama | 25.2% | 3.24 | 3.00 | -7.3% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.14 · Under: 1.67 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.42 / 3.09 / 3.03 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Independiente Medellín — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Independiente MedellínFair line (devig) — Independiente Medellín
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Independiente Medellín
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Vasco da Gama
LLLWDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.17 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | H v Atletico-MG | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-25 | H v Bragantino | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-05-16 | A v Internacional | 1-4 | L |
| 2026-05-11 | H v Athletico-PR | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Flamengo RJ | 2-2 | D |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.