Chongqing Tonglianglong FC v Zhejiang
SLC Sat 18 Jul, 12:00 UK · in 4d
Model probabilities
46% / 27% / 27%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.7 — 1.278
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 32% · Zhejiang 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC | 45.8% | 2.42 | 2.30 | -5% |
| Draw | 26.8% | 3.89 | 3.70 | -4.9% |
| Zhejiang | 27.4% | 3.03 | 2.88 | -5% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.65 · Under: 2.15 — best captured prices.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Chongqing Tonglianglong FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Chongqing Tonglianglong FCFair line (devig) — Chongqing Tonglianglong FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC
LWDLDD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | H v Beijing Guoan | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-24 | A v Qingdao Hainiu | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-20 | H v Yunnan Yukun | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-05-16 | A v Shandong Taishan | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-09 | A v Shanghai Shenhua | 2-2 | D |
Zhejiang
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.