Vitoria v Vasco da Gama
Brazil Série A · Thu 16 Jul, 23:30 UK
Model probabilities
51% / 27% / 22%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.741 — 1.082
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Vitoria 36% · Vasco da Gama 14% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria | 51.2% | 2.43 | 2.40 | -1.4% |
| Draw | 26.6% | 3.46 | 3.30 | -4.6% |
| Vasco da Gama | 22.1% | 3.34 | 3.30 | -1.3% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.04 · Under: 1.83 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.32 / 3.30 / 3.19 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Vitoria — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — VitoriaFair line (devig) — Vitoria
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Vitoria
LWLLLD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.17 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | A v Santos | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-23 | H v Internacional | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Bragantino | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-16 | A v CD Nacional | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-11 | H v Casa Pia AC | 0-1 | L |
Vasco da Gama
LLLWDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.17 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | H v Atletico-MG | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-25 | H v Bragantino | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-05-16 | A v Internacional | 1-4 | L |
| 2026-05-11 | H v Athletico-PR | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Flamengo RJ | 2-2 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | Vasco v Vitoria | 4-3 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-05-10 | Vitoria v Vasco | 2-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2024-09-01 | Vitoria v Vasco | 0-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2024-05-12 | Vasco v Vitoria | 2-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2018-09-09 | Vitoria v Vasco | 1-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2018-05-13 | Vasco v Vitoria | 2-3 | Brazil Serie A |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.