Atletico Goianiense v Athletic Club (MG)
BSB Sat 18 Jul, 22:00 UK · in 5d
Model probabilities
68% / 25% / 7%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.664 — 0.4
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-0
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Atletico Goianiense 43% · Athletic Club (MG) 3% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Goianiense | 67.8% | 2.01 | 1.91 | -5.1% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 3.48 | 3.30 | -5.3% |
| Athletic Club (MG) | 7.3% | 4.65 | 4.20 | -9.7% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.20 · Under: 1.60 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.90 / 3.29 / 4.39 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Atletico Goianiense — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Atletico GoianienseFair line (devig) — Atletico Goianiense
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Atletico Goianiense
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v Fortaleza EC | 1-0 | W |
Athletic Club (MG)
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.