Jaro v FC Inter Turku
VF Sun 19 Jul, 16:30 UK · in 5d
Model probabilities
43% / 29% / 29%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.504 — 1.193
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Jaro 29% · FC Inter Turku 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaro | 42.8% | 6.33 | 5.75 | -9.2% |
| Draw | 28.7% | 4.46 | 4.20 | -5.9% |
| FC Inter Turku | 28.6% | 1.62 | 1.53 | -5.4% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.66 · Under: 2.15 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 5.98 / 4.21 / 1.53 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Jaro — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — JaroFair line (devig) — Jaro
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Jaro
LLWLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.08 / 1.92
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | H v HJK | 2-5 | L |
| 2026-05-31 | A v AC Oulu | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-23 | H v Mariehamn | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-05-20 | A v KuPS | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-05-16 | A v Gnistan | 0-5 | L |
FC Inter Turku
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.