Boca Juniors v O'Higgins
Copa Sudamericana · Fri 24 Jul, 01:30 UK
Model probabilities
47% / 28% / 25%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Boca Juniors 30% · O'Higgins 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors | 46.5% | 1.35 | 1.26 | -6.8% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 5.71 | 5.30 | -7.3% |
| O'Higgins | 25.2% | 11.90 | 13.00 | +9.2% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.80 · Under: 2.00 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.26 / 5.32 / 11.05 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Boca Juniors — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Boca JuniorsFair line (devig) — Boca Juniors
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Boca Juniors
DWWWDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.5 / 0.5
Over 2.5 goals: 25% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
Over 2.5 goals: 25% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | H v Huracan | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-02 | A v Central Cordoba | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-04-24 | A v Defensa y Justicia | 4-0 | W |
| 2026-04-19 | A v River Plate | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-04-11 | H v Independiente | 1-1 | D |
O'Higgins
WLWDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.6 / 1.4
Over 2.5 goals: 20% · Both teams scored: 20% · Clean sheets: 60%
Over 2.5 goals: 20% · Both teams scored: 20% · Clean sheets: 60%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | H v Nublense | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-03-12 | A v CD Tolima | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-03-05 | H v CD Tolima | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-02-25 | A v EC Bahia | 5-5 | D |
| 2026-02-18 | H v EC Bahia | 1-0 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.