Fortaleza v Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazil Série B · Sat 18 Jul, 01:00 UK
Model probabilities
68% / 25% / 7%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.664 — 0.4
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-0
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Fortaleza 43% · Grêmio Novorizontino 3% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza | 67.8% | 2.20 | 2.05 | -6.7% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 3.07 | 3.30 | +7.6% |
| Grêmio Novorizontino | 7.3% | 4.57 | 4.00 | -12.4% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.07 · Under: 1.70 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.08 / 2.90 / 4.33 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Fortaleza — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — FortalezaFair line (devig) — Fortaleza
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Fortaleza
LLLWWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.92 / 1.75
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Atletico Goianiense | 0-1 | L |
| 2025-12-07 | A v Botafogo FR | 2-4 | L |
| 2025-12-07 | A v Botafogo RJ | 2-4 | L |
| 2025-12-03 | H v SC Corinthians Paulista | 2-1 | W |
| 2025-12-03 | H v Corinthians | 2-1 | W |
Grêmio Novorizontino
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.