Vålerenga v Aalesund
EN Thu 16 Jul, 18:00 UK · in 2d
Model probabilities
61% / 22% / 17%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
2.177 — 1.086
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Vålerenga 47% · Aalesund 12% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vålerenga | 60.7% | 1.82 | 1.74 | -4.3% |
| Draw | 22.4% | 4.50 | 4.30 | -4.5% |
| Aalesund | 16.9% | 4.39 | 4.25 | -3.1% |
Sharp reference (raw): 1.73 / 4.29 / 4.17 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Vålerenga — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — VålerengaFair line (devig) — Vålerenga
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Vålerenga
LWLWLD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.08 / 1.75
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Tromso | 0-4 | L |
| 2026-05-29 | H v Kristiansund | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-25 | A v Start | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-16 | H v Sarpsborg 08 | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-08 | A v HamKam | 0-1 | L |
Aalesund
DDDWWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.42 / 1.83
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Molde | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-29 | H v HamKam | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-25 | A v Tromso | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-20 | H v Brann | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-16 | A v Rosenborg | 3-2 | W |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-17 | Valerenga v Aalesund | 3-1 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2023-04-10 | Aalesund v Valerenga | 0-1 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2022-08-07 | Valerenga v Aalesund | 4-0 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2022-06-19 | Aalesund v Valerenga | 2-2 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2020-11-21 | Aalesund v Valerenga | 1-1 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2020-07-04 | Valerenga v Aalesund | 2-2 | Norway Eliteserien |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.