St Johnstone v Kilmarnock
Premiership - Scotland · Sun 2 Aug, 14:00 UK
Model probabilities
45% / 29% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): St Johnstone 30% · Kilmarnock 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Johnstone | 45.0% | 2.28 | 2.38 | +4.5% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.66 | 3.60 | -1.7% |
| Kilmarnock | 26.1% | 3.47 | 3.25 | -6.4% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.75 · Under: 2.06 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.17 / 3.49 / 3.30 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · St Johnstone — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — St JohnstoneFair line (devig) — St Johnstone
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
St Johnstone
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 4 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Cove Rangers | 4-2 | W |
Kilmarnock
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.