Estudiantes de Río Cuarto v CA Tigre BA
Primera División - Argentina · Sat 25 Jul, 18:45 UK
Model probabilities
43% / 32% / 25%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.31 — 0.945
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 25% · CA Tigre BA 14% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 43.3% | 4.44 | 4.20 | -5.5% |
| Draw | 31.5% | 3.09 | 2.90 | -6% |
| CA Tigre BA | 25.2% | 2.22 | 2.10 | -5.3% |
Sharp reference (raw): 4.24 / 2.94 / 2.11 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Estudiantes de Río Cuarto — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Estudiantes de Río CuartoFair line (devig) — Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
CA Tigre BA
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.