Coritiba v Palmeiras
Brazil Série A · Wed 22 Jul, 23:30 UK
Model probabilities
28% / 30% / 42%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.109 — 1.404
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Coritiba 17% · Palmeiras 26% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coritiba | 28.1% | 3.85 | 3.70 | -3.8% |
| Draw | 29.9% | 3.44 | 3.30 | -4% |
| Palmeiras | 42.0% | 2.23 | 2.14 | -3.9% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.17 · Under: 1.67 — best captured prices.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Palmeiras — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — PalmeirasFair line (devig) — Palmeiras
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Coritiba
LWWDLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.33 / 1.5
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | A v Flamengo RJ | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-05-26 | H v Bahia | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Santos | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-05-09 | H v Internacional | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-02 | A v Vitoria | 1-4 | L |
Palmeiras
WWDDDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.33 / 0.5
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | H v Chapecoense-SC | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-24 | A v Flamengo RJ | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Cruzeiro | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Remo | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-02 | H v Santos | 1-1 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-22 | Coritiba v Palmeiras | 0-2 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2023-06-04 | Palmeiras v Coritiba | 3-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2022-10-06 | Palmeiras v Coritiba | 4-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2022-06-12 | Coritiba v Palmeiras | 0-2 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2021-02-17 | Coritiba v Palmeiras | 1-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2020-10-14 | Palmeiras v Coritiba | 1-3 | Brazil Serie A |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.