Deportes Concepción v O'Higgins
PDC Mon 27 Jul, 01:30 UK · in 13d
Model probabilities
45% / 29% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Deportes Concepción 29% · O'Higgins 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Concepción | 45.0% | 3.19 | 2.88 | -9.9% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.61 | 3.25 | -10% |
| O'Higgins | 26.1% | 2.44 | 2.20 | -9.8% |
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Deportes Concepción — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Deportes ConcepciónFair line (devig) — Deportes Concepción
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Deportes Concepción
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
O'Higgins
WLWDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.6 / 1.4
Over 2.5 goals: 20% · Both teams scored: 20% · Clean sheets: 60%
Over 2.5 goals: 20% · Both teams scored: 20% · Clean sheets: 60%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | H v Nublense | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-03-12 | A v CD Tolima | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-03-05 | H v CD Tolima | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-02-25 | A v EC Bahia | 5-5 | D |
| 2026-02-18 | H v EC Bahia | 1-0 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.