León v Atlas
Liga MX · Sat 18 Jul, 02:00 UK
Model probabilities
45% / 28% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.57 — 1.153
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): León 30% · Atlas 17% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| León | 45.4% | 2.08 | 1.96 | -5.9% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 3.72 | 3.50 | -5.8% |
| Atlas | 26.4% | 3.98 | 3.75 | -5.9% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.91 · Under: 1.80 — best captured prices.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · León — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — LeónFair line (devig) — León
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
León
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Atlas
LLWDWD
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.75 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | A v Cruz Azul | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | H v Cruz Azul | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-04-26 | A v Club America | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-04-23 | H v Tigres UANL | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-20 | A v Santos Laguna | 1-0 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.