Criciuma v Vila Nova
Brazil Série B · Sat 18 Jul, 20:00 UK
Model probabilities
68% / 25% / 7%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.664 — 0.4
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-0
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Criciuma 43% · Vila Nova 3% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Criciuma | 67.8% | 1.86 | 1.75 | -6% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 3.45 | 3.50 | +1.5% |
| Vila Nova | 7.3% | 5.78 | 5.10 | -11.8% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.25 · Under: 1.67 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.76 / 3.26 / 5.46 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Criciuma — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — CriciumaFair line (devig) — Criciuma
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Criciuma
LLLDLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.83 / 1.75
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-08 | A v Bragantino | 1-5 | L |
| 2024-12-04 | H v Flamengo RJ | 0-3 | L |
| 2024-11-30 | H v Corinthians | 2-4 | L |
| 2024-11-26 | A v Fluminense | 0-0 | D |
| 2024-11-20 | H v Vitoria | 0-1 | L |
Vila Nova
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.