Middlesbrough v Wrexham AFC
EFL Cup · Fri 7 Aug, 20:00 UK
Model probabilities
45% / 29% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Middlesbrough 29% · Wrexham AFC 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 45.0% | 1.90 | 1.97 | +3.8% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 4.05 | 3.80 | -6.1% |
| Wrexham AFC | 26.1% | 4.44 | 4.33 | -2.6% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.76 · Under: 2.00 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.77 / 3.77 / 4.14 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Middlesbrough — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — MiddlesbroughFair line (devig) — Middlesbrough
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Middlesbrough
LLLDWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.67 / 2.08
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-21 | A v Liverpool | 0-3 | L |
| 2017-05-13 | H v Southampton | 1-2 | L |
| 2017-05-08 | A v Chelsea | 0-3 | L |
| 2017-04-30 | H v Man City | 2-2 | D |
| 2017-04-26 | H v Sunderland | 1-0 | W |
Wrexham AFC
D
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Wisla Krakow | 0-0 | D |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.