Tijuana v Tigres
Liga MX · Fri 17 Jul, 04:00 UK
Model probabilities
45% / 28% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.57 — 1.153
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Tijuana 31% · Tigres 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tijuana | 45.4% | 3.86 | 3.65 | -5.5% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 3.70 | 3.60 | -2.8% |
| Tigres | 26.4% | 2.12 | 2.08 | -2% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.85 · Under: 1.92 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 3.67 / 3.52 / 2.02 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Tijuana — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — TijuanaFair line (devig) — Tijuana
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Tijuana
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Tigres
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.