Daejeon Citizen v Ulsan Hyundai FC
KL1 Sat 18 Jul, 11:30 UK · in 4d
Model probabilities
45% / 29% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Daejeon Citizen 29% · Ulsan Hyundai FC 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daejeon Citizen | 45.0% | 2.57 | 2.38 | -7.4% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.65 | 3.40 | -6.8% |
| Ulsan Hyundai FC | 26.1% | 2.97 | 2.95 | -0.6% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.88 · Under: 1.85 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.45 / 3.48 / 2.83 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Daejeon Citizen — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Daejeon CitizenFair line (devig) — Daejeon Citizen
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Daejeon Citizen
D
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Jeju United FC | 0-0 | D |
Ulsan Hyundai FC
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 3
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Jeonbuk Motors | 1-3 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.