São Bernardo v Avai
BSB Fri 17 Jul, 23:00 UK · in 4d
Model probabilities
68% / 25% / 7%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.664 — 0.4
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-0
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): São Bernardo 43% · Avai 2% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Bernardo | 67.8% | 2.07 | 1.91 | -7.7% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 3.47 | 3.45 | -0.6% |
| Avai | 7.3% | 4.35 | 4.00 | -8% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.15 · Under: 1.74 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.96 / 3.29 / 4.12 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · São Bernardo — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — São BernardoFair line (devig) — São Bernardo
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
São Bernardo
D
Goals for/against (last 12): 2 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v Cuiaba | 2-2 | D |
Avai
WWWDLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.83 / 1.75
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v Nautico Recife | 2-0 | W |
| 2022-11-12 | A v Flamengo RJ | 2-1 | W |
| 2022-11-09 | H v Ceara | 2-0 | W |
| 2022-11-05 | A v Santos | 1-1 | D |
| 2022-11-02 | H v Bragantino | 1-2 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.