San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC
MLS · Thu 23 Jul, 03:30 UK
Model probabilities
48% / 25% / 27%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.852 — 1.341
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): San Jose Earthquakes 35% · Orlando City SC 19% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes | 48.0% | 1.53 | 1.44 | -5.8% |
| Draw | 25.4% | 5.32 | 5.00 | -6% |
| Orlando City SC | 26.6% | 6.37 | 6.00 | -5.8% |
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · San Jose Earthquakes — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — San Jose EarthquakesFair line (devig) — San Jose Earthquakes
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
San Jose Earthquakes
WLLDDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 2.33 / 1.25
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | A v Portland Timbers | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | H v FC Dallas | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | A v Seattle Sounders | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Vancouver Whitecaps | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-02 | A v Toronto FC | 1-1 | D |
Orlando City SC
LDWLWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.67 / 2.75
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | A v FC Cincinnati | 2-6 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Atlanta Utd | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Philadelphia Union | 4-3 | W |
| 2026-05-09 | A v CF Montreal | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Inter Miami | 4-3 | W |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-19 | San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City | 0-1 | USA MLS |
| 2021-06-23 | Orlando City v San Jose Earthquakes | 5-0 | USA MLS |
| 2019-09-01 | San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City | 3-0 | USA MLS |
| 2018-04-22 | Orlando City v San Jose Earthquakes | 3-2 | USA MLS |
| 2017-05-18 | San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City | 1-1 | USA MLS |
| 2016-06-19 | Orlando City v San Jose Earthquakes | 2-2 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.