SonderjyskE v FC Midtjylland
DS Sun 26 Jul, 13:00 UK · in 12d
Model probabilities
45% / 29% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): SonderjyskE 30% · FC Midtjylland 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SonderjyskE | 45.0% | 5.49 | 5.30 | -3.5% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 4.74 | 4.50 | -5% |
| FC Midtjylland | 26.1% | 1.65 | 1.57 | -4.7% |
Sharp reference (raw): 5.20 / 4.49 / 1.56 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · SonderjyskE — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — SonderjyskEFair line (devig) — SonderjyskE
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
SonderjyskE
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
FC Midtjylland
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 6 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Cardiff | 6-0 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.