Queens Park Rangers v Millwall
EFL Cup · Sat 8 Aug, 14:00 UK
Model probabilities
47% / 28% / 25%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Queens Park Rangers 31% · Millwall 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queens Park Rangers | 46.5% | 3.51 | 3.30 | -6% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 3.45 | 3.45 | 0% |
| Millwall | 25.2% | 2.36 | 2.25 | -4.6% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.91 · Under: 1.91 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 3.29 / 3.23 / 2.21 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Queens Park Rangers — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Queens Park RangersFair line (devig) — Queens Park Rangers
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Queens Park Rangers
DLWLLD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.17 / 2.17
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v First Vienna | 0-0 | D |
| 2015-05-24 | A v Leicester | 1-5 | L |
| 2015-05-16 | H v Newcastle | 2-1 | W |
| 2015-05-10 | A v Man City | 0-6 | L |
| 2015-05-02 | A v Liverpool | 1-2 | L |
Millwall
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.