Wolverhampton Wanderers v Port Vale
EFL Cup · Fri 7 Aug, 19:45 UK
Model probabilities
45% / 29% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Wolverhampton Wanderers 29% · Port Vale 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 45.0% | 1.43 | 1.35 | -5.9% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 5.43 | 5.40 | -0.6% |
| Port Vale | 26.1% | 8.40 | 9.00 | +7.1% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.55 · Under: 2.32 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.33 / 5.04 / 7.81 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Wolverhampton Wanderers — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Wolverhampton WanderersFair line (devig) — Wolverhampton Wanderers
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Wolverhampton Wanderers
DDLDLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.92 / 1.67
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | A v Burnley FC | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Fulham FC | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-09 | A v Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-05-02 | H v Sunderland AFC | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-25 | H v Tottenham Hotspur FC | 0-1 | L |
Port Vale
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.