Newells Old Boys v Talleres
Primera División - Argentina · Sat 25 Jul, 21:00 UK
Model probabilities
43% / 32% / 25%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.31 — 0.945
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Newells Old Boys 26% · Talleres 14% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newells Old Boys | 43.3% | 2.92 | 2.75 | -5.9% |
| Draw | 31.5% | 2.99 | 2.90 | -3.1% |
| Talleres | 25.2% | 3.09 | 2.80 | -9.3% |
Sharp reference (raw): 2.79 / 2.86 / 2.94 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Newells Old Boys — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Newells Old BoysFair line (devig) — Newells Old Boys
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Newells Old Boys
DDWDWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.92 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | A v Velez Sarsfield | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-26 | H v Instituto | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-18 | A v Union de Santa Fe | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-04-12 | H v San Lorenzo | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-06 | A v Central Cordoba | 3-1 | W |
Talleres
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.