Independiente Santa Fe v Caracas FC
Copa Sudamericana · Fri 24 Jul, 01:30 UK
Model probabilities
47% / 28% / 25%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Independiente Santa Fe 31% · Caracas FC 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe | 46.5% | 1.50 | 1.40 | -6.9% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 4.55 | 4.20 | -7.6% |
| Caracas FC | 25.2% | 8.70 | 9.00 | +3.5% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.15 · Under: 1.67 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.40 / 4.23 / 8.08 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Independiente Santa Fe — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Independiente Santa FeFair line (devig) — Independiente Santa Fe
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Independiente Santa Fe
WWDLLD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.5
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 13%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 13%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | A v CA Peñarol | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-20 | H v CA Platense | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-07 | H v SC Corinthians Paulista | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-29 | A v CA Platense | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-04-16 | A v SC Corinthians Paulista | 0-2 | L |
Caracas FC
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.