BSC Young Boys v FC Sion
SS Sun 26 Jul, 13:00 UK · in 12d
Model probabilities
45% / 29% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): BSC Young Boys 29% · FC Sion 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BSC Young Boys | 45.0% | 2.01 | 1.91 | -4.9% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 4.26 | 4.00 | -6% |
| FC Sion | 26.1% | 3.75 | 3.40 | -9.2% |
Sharp reference (raw): 1.91 / 4.04 / 3.56 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · BSC Young Boys — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — BSC Young BoysFair line (devig) — BSC Young Boys
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
BSC Young Boys
LLLLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.58 / 2.67
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-29 | H v FK Crvena Zvezda | 0-1 | L |
| 2025-01-22 | A v Celtic FC | 0-1 | L |
| 2024-12-11 | A v VfB Stuttgart | 1-5 | L |
| 2024-11-26 | H v Atalanta BC | 1-6 | L |
| 2024-11-06 | A v FK Shakhtar Donetsk | 1-2 | L |
FC Sion
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 3 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Yverdon Sport | 3-1 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.