Corinthians v Remo
Brazil Série A · Thu 23 Jul, 23:30 UK
Model probabilities
66% / 22% / 12%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
2.065 — 0.772
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
2-0
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Corinthians 49% · Remo 7% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | 66.0% | 1.63 | 1.57 | -3.6% |
| Draw | 22.2% | 4.29 | 4.00 | -6.8% |
| Remo | 11.8% | 6.54 | 7.00 | +7.1% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.97 · Under: 1.79 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.55 / 4.08 / 6.23 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Corinthians — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — CorinthiansFair line (devig) — Corinthians
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Corinthians
DWWLWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.08 / 1.17
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Cascavel | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-30 | A v Gremio | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-24 | H v Atletico-MG | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Botafogo RJ | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Sao Paulo | 3-2 | W |
Remo
WLWDWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.5
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | H v Sao Paulo | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-24 | H v Athletico-PR | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Chapecoense-SC | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Palmeiras | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-02 | A v Botafogo RJ | 2-1 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.